Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010-11 Surge in Food Prices

Global food prices increased sharply between June and December 2010. This paper assesses the impact of price changes for 38 agricultural commodities on poverty using detailed data on patterns of production and consumption in 28 countries. We find considerable heterogeneity in the impacts, but estimate that poverty rose by 44 million people, with 68 million people falling into poverty and 24 million people raised out of poverty at the extreme poverty line of $1.25 per day. This corresponds to an average poverty increase of 1.1% points in low income countries and 0.7% points in middle income countries.