The chronology of Neolithic dispersal in Central and Eastern Europe

We analyze statistically representative samples of radiocarbon dates from key Early Neolithic sites in Central Europe belonging to the Linear Pottery Ceramic Culture (LBK), and of pottery-bearing cultures on East European Plain (Yelshanian, Rakushechnyi Yar, Buh-Dniestrian, Serteya and boreal East European Plain). The dates from the LBK sites form a statistically homogeneous set with the probability distribution similar to a single-date Gaussian curve. This implies that the duration of the spread of the LBK is shorter than the available temporal resolution of the radiocarbon dating; therefore, the rate of spread must be larger than 4 km/yr, in agreement with earlier estimates. The East European sites exhibit a broad probability distribution of dates. We identify in these data a spatio-temporal sequence from south-east to north-west, which implies the rate of spread of the initial pottery-making of the order of 1.6 km/yr, comparable to the average rate of spread of the Neolithic in Western and Central Europe. We argue that this spatio-temporal sequence is consistent with an idea that the tradition of the initial pottery-making on East European Plain developed under an early impulse from the Eastern Steppe.