Substance flow analysis and mineral policy: The case of potash in Thailand

In recent decades, there have been numerous efforts to develop local potash deposits in Thailand. From a macroeconomic point of view, the government can successfully manage these deposits by considering the effect of potash flows on the economy. The aim of this paper is to perform a substance flow analysis (SFA) to determine the current potassium stocks and flows related to potash ores in Thailand and to pinpoint possible changes due to developments in mining. We found that recycled wastes and imported fertilizers were the main contributors of potassium inputs to the Thai economy in 2012 and the majority of outputs were agricultural wastes and industrial and household wastes. Producing 1.1 million tonnes of potassium chloride (KCl) − the major form of potash fertilizer − annually can help to reduce the country's dependence on imports without adversely impacting depletion rate and the diversity of supply. However, increasing production to 3.3 million tonnes of KCl per year can result in significantly faster depletion and intensive export. These different development choices and consequences show that the Government of Thailand urgently needs to define its development targets and to implement a suitable production strategy.