Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
10503916 | Electoral Studies | 2012 | 13 Pages |
Abstract
⺠There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes: a historical one and a campaign-oriented one. ⺠We look at whether these two approaches can be usefully combined. ⺠We test whether prediction errors in historical models are related to trends during the campaign. ⺠That possibility is tested using 17 elections in the US, UK and Canada. âºÂ Results suggest that campaigns account for prediction errors only indirectly.
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Authors
Ãric Bélanger, Stuart Soroka,