Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
10508478 | Spatial Statistics | 2015 | 18 Pages |
Abstract
Voronoi residuals, deviances, super-thinning, and some other residual analysis methods are applied to a selection of earthquake forecast models in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Unlike simple numerical summaries such as the N-test, L-test, or R-test, graphical residual methods are proposed which can be useful for comparing multiple models and for highlighting when and where a given model does not agree closely with the observed seismicity. For gridded forecasts, deviances seem ideally suited for model comparison, and Voronoi residuals seem preferable to simple grid-based residuals for assessing one model individually. For models outputting an estimated conditional rate at any particular space-time location, Voronoi residuals and super-thinning can be especially useful at identifying departures from the data.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Earth and Planetary Sciences (General)
Authors
Joshua Seth Gordon, Robert Alan Clements, Frederic Paik Schoenberg, Danijel Schorlemmer,