Quantifying the impact of climate change on enteric waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water

Climate change, among other factors, will impact waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water worldwide, possibly increasing the risk of diseases caused by these pathogens. So far, the impacts are only determined qualitatively and thorough quantitative estimates of future pathogen concentrations have not yet been made. This review shows how changes in temperature and precipitation influence pathogen concentrations and gives opportunities to quantitatively explore the impact of climate change on pathogen concentrations using examples from ecological and hydrological modelling, already available statistical and process-based pathogen models and climate change scenarios. Such applications could indicate potential increased waterborne pathogen concentrations and guide further research.

► Climate change impacts on waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water. ► These concentrations are expected to increase. ► Available ecological and hydrological scenario studies provide opportunities. ► Statistical and process-based models and climate scenarios help quantify the impacts.