Future world oil production: growth, plateau, or peak?

With the exception of two oil shocks in the 1970s, world oil production experienced steady growth throughout the 20th century, from about 400,000 barrels a day in 1900 to over 74 million by 1999. Conservative projections from the International Energy Agency for 2035 suggest that production will increase to about 96 million barrels a day. If this target is met, world oil production will have exceeded 2000 gigabarrels (billion barrels) in the span of 135 years. Almost all of the oil products humans consume are derived from sources that are non-renewable. With this in mind, this paper considers how long world oil production can continue to grow or if it will eventually plateau or peak and then decline. The paper concludes with the observation that whether peak oil has already occurred or will not occur for many years, societies should be prepared for a world with less oil.

► World supplies of conventional crude oil appear to have reached a plateau. ► Depletion rates may overwhelm supplies of natural gas liquids and non-conventional sources. ► Renewables may not be able to fill the need for liquid fuels, either through replacement or restriction policies. ► Non-conventional sources such as heavy oils, tar sands, and coal-to-liquids can be expected to contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. ► Any challenges to the availability or affordability of liquid fuels will have serious consequences for energy security.