Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
1052037 | Electoral Studies | 2011 | 8 Pages |
Abstract
This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.
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Authors
Stephen D. Fisher, Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup, Christopher Wlezien,