When do voters actually think “It’s the Economy”? Evidence from the 2008 presidential campaign

Studies linking election outcomes to economics frequently assume that the economy’s salience is constant. This study shows that the economy’s salience systematically fluctuates. The number of voters focused on economic issues shifted dramatically throughout the 2008 campaign as the recession worsened and this change occurred well before the financial markets collapsed in September 2008. However, even during the recession substantial numbers of individuals said their vote was based on non-economic issues and for these individuals there was no relationship between their assessment of the economy and their electoral choice. Consistent with extant theories of issue attention, citizens who were the hardest hit by the recession and those who had the most anxiety about suffering a financial dislocation in the future were most likely to consider economic performance electorally important while secure voters were less likely to be economic voters.

► Voters for whom the economy was not salient show no significant economic voting. ► Economy’s salience increased throughout the campaign, not just in September. ► Voters affected by the recession gave greater weight to the economy than those not affected. ► Voters worried about a financial dislocation gave greater weight to the economy than those who are not worried. ► Fears of terrorist attack distract voters from the economy.