Short-term voting determinants in a young democracy: Leader effects in Portugal in the 2002 legislative elections

This paper analyses the importance of affect towards party leaders in voting behaviour in Portuguese democracy, using the first post-election study conducted in Portugal. It starts by presenting the context of the 2002 legislative elections. The importance of leader effects is measured in the 2002 elections and compared with a survey fielded in 1993. Affect towards party leader is a very important explanatory factor of the vote in Portugal, especially considering the context of the 2002 election. Moreover, the paper shows that there are important differences among different types of parties, and also across the ideological divide.