Why parties adapt: Electoral reform, party finance and party strategy in Belgium

From the May 2003 elections on, a new 5% electoral threshold was introduced in Belgium. The threshold was intended to curb a further fragmentation of the Belgian party system, and indeed, three small parties are now in danger of losing their autonomy. Mechanical effects, however, proved to be quite limited with only three seats shifting as a result of the threshold. Since we find no strong indications of strategic voting, Duverger's psychological mechanism seems to have a stronger impact at the elite level than at the mass level. Rules on party finance play a key role in this process: in Belgium, as in other countries, parties have become increasingly dependent on state money and this dependency serves as a powerful incentive for strategic co-ordination. Rules on party finance should be integrated more fully in the future study of the results of electoral reform.