Campaign trial heats as electoral information: Evidence from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian federal elections

Strikingly, systematic variation across firms within the industry is less notable than bias in the industry as a whole. There was less bias in 2004 than in 2006, but only marginally so. In each election, the industry underestimated the Liberal share and overestimated the NDP one. We speculate on sources of bias, and then ask if the discrepancy between polls and the electorate is methodological at the core or the product of last-minute strategic decision-making.