Ecological niche models for the evaluation of management options in an urban floodplain—conservation vs. restoration purposes

The Lobau, a former dynamic floodplain area of the Danube River situated close to Vienna (Austria), was strongly affected by the river regulation in 1875. The reduced hydrological connectivity changed the conditions in the system which is nowadays groundwater-fed, back-flooded, and characterized by sedimentation and terrestrialisation processes.On one hand, the artificially created habitat types have a high conservation potential; they harbour a rich community whose habitat range has been reduced due to degradation in the cultural landscape. On the other hand, restoration efforts aim to reverse the anthropogenic impact due to damming and to restore the natural status of the wetland with its dynamic hydrological regime and its associated rheophilic community as far as possible.The challenge for floodplain managers is now to develop a compromise solution that integrates restoration and conservation efforts. The potential options range from the conservation of the present status to the restoration of the floodplain towards pristine conditions. We used a logistic regression approach to predict the potential habitat availability for indicator species including highly endangered and flagship species which are used for attracting public support for the conservation/restoration measures.The results represent the actual and potential future community of the system for the management options. Based on the results we make recommendations for the selection of a best compromise for the management of the floodplain with special regard to the legal objectives.

► We analysed potential management options for a floodplain of the Danube. ► The aim was to integrate restoration and conservation objectives into management. ► Therefore the habitat availability for endangered and flagship species was calculated. ► The results represent the actual and potential future community of the system.