A correction in the CDM methodological tool for estimating methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites

•IPCC and CDM methane generation models for landfills are compared to each other.•A misinterpretation of the IPCC guidelines on biogas from landfills is shown.•An error in the CDM tool on biogas harms project developers or the environment.•Corrections for this tool are here proposed to the CDM Executive Board.

Solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) – especially landfills – are a significant source of methane, a greenhouse gas. Although having the potential to be captured and used as a fuel, most of the methane formed in SWDS is emitted to the atmosphere, mainly in developing countries. Methane emissions have to be estimated in national inventories. To help this task the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published three sets of guidelines. In addition, the Kyoto Protocol established the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to assist the developed countries to offset their own greenhouse gas emissions by assisting other countries to achieve sustainable development while reducing emissions. Based on methodologies provided by the IPCC regarding SWDS, the CDM Executive Board has issued a tool to be used by project developers for estimating baseline methane emissions in their project activities – on burning biogas from landfills or on preventing biomass to be landfilled and so avoiding methane emissions. Some inconsistencies in the first two IPCC guidelines have already been pointed out in an Annex of IPCC latest edition, although with hidden details. The CDM tool uses a model for methane estimation that takes on board parameters, factors and assumptions provided in the latest IPCC guidelines, while using in its core equation the one of the second IPCC edition with its shortcoming as well as allowing a misunderstanding of the time variable. Consequences of wrong ex-ante estimation of baseline emissions regarding CDM project activities can be of economical or environmental type. Example of the first type is the overestimation of 18% in an actual project on biogas from landfill in Brazil that harms its developers; of the second type, the overestimation of 35% in a project preventing municipal solid waste from being landfilled in China, which harms the environment, not for the project per se but for the undue generated carbon credits. In a simulated landfill – the same amount of waste for 20 years –, the error would be an overestimation of 25% if the CDM project activity starts from the very first year or an underestimation of 15% if it starts just after the landfill closure. Therefore, a correction in the tool to calculate emissions from landfills as adopted by the CDM Executive Board is needed. Moreover, in countries not using the latest IPCC guidelines, which provides clear formulas to prevent misunderstandings, inventory compilers can also benefit from this paper by having more accurate results in national GHG inventories related to solid waste disposal, especially when increasing amounts of waste are landfilled, which is the case of the developing countries.