Inferring land use and land cover impact on stream water quality using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach in the Xitiaoxi River Watershed, China

•Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in a watershed were monitored monthly.•A Bayesian model was used to analyze the impact of land use on stream water quality.•Soil properties, slope, and permeability were evaluated with land use categories.•The impact of land use had great spatial variations within the watershed.

Lake eutrophication has become a very serious environmental problem in China. If water pollution is to be controlled and ultimately eliminated, it is essential to understand how human activities affect surface water quality. A recently developed technique using the Bayesian hierarchical linear regression model revealed the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) on stream water quality at a watershed scale. Six LULC categories combined with watershed characteristics, including size, slope, and permeability were the variables that were studied. The pollutants of concern were nutrient concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), common pollutants found in eutrophication. The monthly monitoring data at 41 sites in the Xitiaoxi Watershed, China during 2009–2010 were used for model demonstration. The results showed that the relationships between LULC and stream water quality are so complicated that the effects are varied over large areas. The models suggested that urban and agricultural land are important sources of TN and TP concentrations, while rural residential land is one of the major sources of TN. Certain agricultural practices (excessive fertilizer application) result in greater concentrations of nutrients in paddy fields, artificial grasslands, and artificial woodlands. This study suggests that Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a powerful tool for examining the complicated relationships between land use and water quality on different scales, and for developing land use and water management policies.