Path dependence and technological expectations in transport policy: the case of Finland and the UK

•There are strong path dependencies in Finnish and UK transport innovation policy.•The emphasis on technological substitution is out of step with climate urgency.•Policies for demand reduction are evident but remain marginal.•Social innovations are required for GHG emissions reduction in transport.

This paper investigates path dependence and path creation in transport policy and related innovation policy in the case of Finland and the UK. The paper uses document content analysis and elite interviews, drawing on literatures on the relationship of institutional and policy path dependency to technological expectations and images of the policy problem. We find that although policy expectations and visions of transport system innovation are still very much focused on motor vehicle technology change in both countries, particularly technological substitution, there are nonetheless indications of acceptance of transport demand reduction policies, which in turn may be regarded as a form of social innovation. Given the importance of transport demand reduction as part of GHG emissions and congestion reduction strategies, there is a need to better understand how policy for social innovation is entering the sphere of transport and related innovation policy and how these processes might be supported.