Patterns in trash: Factors driving municipal recycling in Massachusetts

•Pay-As-You-Throw (PAYT) is the most important contributor to recycling success.•Curbside recycling without PAYT may be insignificant or actually hurt rates.•Single stream and legal mandates are not strong recycling drivers.•Education level and median age are important to recycling success.•Access to Materials Recycling Facilities helps increase recycling rates.

Municipal recycling rates are driven by a variety of factors. Yet how these factors influence recycling over time has not been thoroughly studied. We compile and analyze a panel dataset spanning 13-years of policy, program, and contextual (socioeconomic and demographic) variables for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. We find Pay-As-You-Throw (PAYT) to be the single most important factor influencing rates. In one time period, PAYT's effect varied by the type of recycling service (drop off, subscription, curbside) and increased recycling even more when paired with curbside pickup. Yet, across models, program designs that seek to make recycling more convenient, such as curbside pickup and single stream (the commingling of all recyclables in a single bin) are not as consistently beneficial as PAYT. Education level and median age are the most important contextual factors. Access to a Materials Recycling Facility is also an important driver of recycling rates. Our findings can inform municipal officials and waste managers as they seek to increase recycling.