Expert-based scenarios for strategic waste and resource management planning—C&D waste recycling in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland

Recycling of construction and demolition (C&D) waste is a promising option to conserve scarce landfill capacities, to reduce environmental impacts related to final disposal and to save primary mineral resources. In Switzerland, recycling of C&D waste is well established, but the high recycling rate is considered a labile equilibrium with respect to mid- to long-term developments such as an increase in the generated amounts of C&D waste and a shift in the demand patterns from civil engineering (CE) to structural engineering (SE). In light of the uncertainties related to the developments of the mineral construction material (MCM) market, this paper presents an expert-based formative scenario analysis (FSA) aiming to elaborate possible future states for the “C&D waste recycling” system in the Canton of Zurich for the year 2020. The study integrates the knowledge of 20 experts representing different stakeholders of the Swiss construction industry and C&D waste management, reinforcing collaboration among them. Three types of consistent scenarios were identified. They differ in quantity of C&D waste and the demand for recycled material, and thus, in the recycling rates which can be ascribed to different constellations of market relevant factors. The study identified potential barriers and related strategic orientations in order to assure the recycling of C&D waste in the mid- and long-term future. Furthermore, the study shows how FSA can be used as a purposeful means for strategic planning in regional waste management.