Predictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors: A case study of Ghana and Burundi

Although recent efforts taken have substantially contained human onchocerciasis in many African countries, published reports indicate a recrudescence of the disease. To understand this problem, biophysical factors that favor the establishment of human onchocerciasis in Ghana and Burundi—countries identified as threat locations of recrudescence for neighboring countries—were analyzed. Data pertaining to the prevalence of human onchocerciasis in both countries was obtained from published sources. Findings in this study suggest that there was a gradient in prevalence of onchocerciasis in geographic locations near the water streams. The predictive models suggest that rainfall, humidity, and elevation were statistically significant for Burundi data while in Ghana, only the effect of elevation was highly significant (p < 0.0001). In 2010, the estimated at-risk population was 4,817,280 people (19.75% of the total population) and 522,773 people (6.23% of the total population) in Ghana and Burundi, respectively. Findings can help in the effective design of preventive control measures.

► Predictive model of biophysical factors for human onchocerciasis. ► A gradient in prevalence of onchocerciasis in geographic locations near the water streams. ► Elevation is significant factor for Ghana with an estimated 4,817,280 people at-risk population. ► Rainfall, humidity, and elevation are significant factors for Burundi, 522,773 at-risk population. ► Findings can help in the effective design of optimal and preventive control measures.