Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
1065033 Transport Policy 2012 13 Pages PDF
Abstract

This paper develops a system dynamics model of the UK take-up of electric vehicles over the next 40 years. The model extends previous work by Struben and Sterman (2008) to allow analysis of the UK market. The impact on uptake and CO2 emissions of factors such as subsidies, range, charge point availability, emission rates and a revenue preserving tax are considered. We show that subsidies have little impact on take-up under a traditional business as usual case. However, when we introduce a conditional marketing scenario, they play an important role in tipping the market into a successful trajectory. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions on word of mouth, average vehicle life and emissions rates are explored and we find that changing these can result in a greater impact on take-up and emissions than policy or vehicle attribute factors. Our results have important policy implications.

► Subsidies have little impact on take-up under a traditional business as usual case. ► However, under a conditional marketing scenario, subsidies are shown to play an important role. ► Word of mouth, vehicle life, emission rates assumed can impact more than policy or vehicle factors.

Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Social Sciences Geography, Planning and Development
Authors
, , ,