Measuring the potential implications of introducing a cap and share scheme in Ireland to reduce green house gas emissions

This paper examines some of the potential impacts of introducing a cap and share scheme in Ireland. Under such a scheme a cap or limit is placed on national CO2 emissions and individuals are allocated an annual CO2 allowance. The research presented in this paper focuses on travel-to-work trips specifically. CO2 emissions for these annual work trips are calculated and a cap is determined based on these results. Cap levels are set based on average emissions and a 20% reduction in average emissions as per Ireland's reduction targets. A national and Dublin only cap are examined and the results are presented as a means of comparison. Binary logistic models are used to determine the socio-economic characteristics of individuals who fall above and below the cap. The results demonstrate the importance of car ownership, journey distance, mode choice and household composition in determining whether a commuter is above or below the cap. Many commuters who fall above the cap are likely drive to work over long distances, have dependent children in their household and own more than one car.

Research highlights► This paper examines the potential of a national cap and share scheme. ► Variations of the cap scheme are examined to ascertain how these schemes would impact individuals. ► The socio-economic characteristics of those that are likely to be above the cap are examined.