Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government's 60% carbon-reduction target?

In 2004, the UK's aviation industry emitted an estimated 9.8 MtC; a figure that, without direct intervention, is projected to rise to 16–21 MtC by 2030 according to the UK Government. As the UK's 60% carbon-reduction target approaches, so aviation is likely to become a dominant carbon-emitting sector. This paper calculates the proportion of carbon emissions resulting from the Government's projected aviation growth in relation to a contracting carbon budget. It concludes that the Government must urgently address today's very high levels of growth in emissions within the industry, and ensure future growth can be reconciled with the Government's own carbon targets.