Evaluating policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from private transportation

•We study household decisions on vehicle holding, type/vintage, and miles travelled.•The econometric model is integrated with MOVES 2014 to estimate GHG emissions.•Results show that average annual GHG emissions per vehicle is 5.15 tons.•Fuel tax is more effective in reducing GHGEs than ownership tax and purchase tax.•Fuel tax affects mainly households with fewer vehicles.

This paper proposes a model system to forecast household greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from private transportation. The proposed model combines an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model with MOVES 2014. Four modeling components are calibrated and applied to the calculation of GHGEs: vehicle quantity, vehicle type and vintage, miles traveled, and rates of GHGEs. The model is applied to the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Area. Three tax schemes are evaluated: vehicle ownership tax, purchase tax and fuel tax. We calculate that the average GHGEs per vehicle is 5.15 tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2E) gases. Our results show that: (a) a fuel tax is the most effective way to reduce vehicle GHGEs, especially for households with fewer vehicles; (b) a purchase tax reduces vehicle GHGEs mainly by decreasing vehicle quantity for households with more vehicles; and (c) an ownership tax reduces vehicle GHGEs by decreasing both vehicle quantity and miles traveled.