Quantifying errors in micro-scale emissions models using a case-study approach

To quantify the level of uncertainty attached to forecasts of CO2 emissions, an analysis of errors is undertaken; looking at both errors inherent in the model structure and the uncertainties in the input data. Both error types are treated in relation to CO2 emissions modelling using a case-study from Brisbane, Australia. To estimate input data uncertainty, an analysis of traffic conditions using Monte Carlo simulation is used. Model structure induced uncertainties are also quantified by statistical analysis for a number of traffic scenarios. To arrive at an optimal overall CO2 prediction, the interaction between the two components is taken into account. Since a more complex model does not necessarily yield higher overall accuracy, a compromise solution is found. The results suggest that the CO2 model used in the analysis produces low overall uncertainty under free flow traffic conditions. When average traffic speeds approach congested conditions, however, there are significant errors associated with emissions estimates.

► Micro-scale level emission models and traffic simulation models are reviewed. ► Australian in-service vehicle emissions project data is as a basis for Monte Carlo simulations. ► When average traffic speeds approach congested conditions there are significant errors associated with emissions estimates.