Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to offset the CO2 emissions resulting from rapid air traffic growth. Global aviation CO2 emissions projections are examined for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic flows are forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nor is any compatible with the Panel’s aim of limiting global warming to 3.2 °C.

► Provides projections of global and regional air traffic CO2 emissions until 2025. ► The main scenario suggests emissions will increase by about 40% between 2008 and 2025. ► None of nine scenarios considered is compatible with the IPCC objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq.