A Delphi-Based Framework for systems architecting of in-orbit exploration infrastructure for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit

The paper closes with a summary of insights and develops a strategy for evolutionary development of the exploration infrastructure of the incoming decades. The most important result produced by this analysis is the identification of a critical irreducible ambiguity undermining value delivery for the in-space transportation infrastructure of the next three decades: destination choice. Consensus on destination is far from being reached by the community at large, with particular reference to exploration and policy stakeholders. The realization of this ambiguity is a call for NASA to promote an open forum on this topic, and to develop a strong case for policy makers to incentivize investments in the human spaceflight industry in the next decades.