Life cycle inventory comparison of different building insulation materials and uncertainty analysis

Building insulation materials have a significant effect on the reduction of heating/cooling energy consumptions of buildings. From a life cycle perspective, the comparison of different types of insulation materials should consider the building energy consumption together with the environmental emissions during the manufacturing, production, transportation, using and recycling phases of insulation materials. However, this comparison suffers from many sources of uncertainty, especially the parameter identification of insulation materials. In this study, a life cycle inventory analysis model is established and applied to compare the life cycle performance of eight types of insulation materials in an uncertain framework. For each parameter, a probability density function is explicitly specified through a parameter identification process, and the data uncertainty is propagated by Monte-Carlo simulation, the inventory analysis results are transformed from a concrete value into a probability distribution around a mean value, and sensitivity analysis is implemented to identify uncertainty and variability affecting produced the life cycle assessment (LCA). The simulation results revealed that physical parameters have a significant contribution to the uncertainty of the insulation materials, especially for life cycle energy consumption of glass wool, the maximum value may even be quadrupled compares to the minimum value. The decision maker may change the choice of insulation materials when data uncertainty is taken into consideration in LCA.