Setting Scheduled Trip Time Based on AVL Data

The scheduled trip time (ST), as an essential parameter, greatly affects the compilation and on-time probability of a vehicle schedule in public transit services. Unfortunately, the significance of ST has not been generally recognized in China. The values of STs are usually set manually based on experiences, which are normally hard to reflect the real-world situation. To set proper trip times, a novel automatic approach based on the AVL data is proposed. The basic process is as follows. First, running time samples are abstracted from a large set of AVL data, based on which the homogeneous running time (HRT) bands are then decided. Meanwhile, the knowledge base of running time distribution is established. Then, the ST parameters corresponding to each HRT band are generated based on a waiting time model. Finally, a simulation system is developed to test the schedules compiled based on a given set of STs, which may be revised further according to the simulation results. Experiments on the bus line 4 of Haikou of China show that setting the STs by the proposed approach brings high on-time probability to vehicle schedules.