Multi-period Bi-level Programming Model for Regional Comprehensive Transport Network Design with Uncertain Demand

By exploring of the multi-period network design problem of comprehensive transport, the paper proposes a bi-level programming model with uncertain demand. The upper level problem is to maximize the consumer surplus of all demand scenarios with budget constraint. While under the network investment decisions of the upper level problem, the lower level problem is to maximize the consumer surplus of every demand scenario with consideration of the collaborations of transportation modes, traffic load balancing and capacity constraints. Then, a numerical example is given to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. Compared with the existing research, the proposed model can simultaneously optimize the final form of the comprehensive transport network and construction timing. The model considers all the annual coordination between transportation infrastructure construction and demand. It reflects the cooperation and balanced development of transportation modes, and makes the decision support more effective for the gradual improvement of the regional comprehensive transport network.