Carrying Capacity Reliability of Railway Networks

The railway network carrying reliability refers to the carrying capacity meeting the OD demand which consciously changed with random and irresistible factors under prescribed conditions and stated time. Based on reviewing the domestic and international achievement of carrying capacity reliability research and analyzing the characteristics of railway transportation, the paper presents the definition of the carrying capacity reliability of railway network. Then, a model for railway network capacity calculation is developed and the approach for reliability determination is proposed. In the final section, a numerical experiment is conducted with different levels of OD demand. The result shows that the fluctuation of OD demand directly affects the carrying capacity of railway networks, and the effective control of fluctuation plays a positive role for a good performance of railway networks.

摘要铁路路网运输能力可靠性是指在规定的条件（路网结构、固定设备、移动设备及一定人力与运输组织水平）下和规定的时间内，考虑日常随机因素以及不可抗力因素等的影响，铁路路网所能提供的各种服务能满足OD需求波动的能力。本文在分析了国内外路网能力可靠性研究和铁路运输的特点上，提出了铁路路网能力可靠性的概念，并构建了相关路网能力的计算模型及能力可靠性的计算方法。最后，以一个铁路路网为例，计算了不同OD需求水平下路网的可靠性。结果表明，OD需求的波动对路网的可靠性有着直接的影响，稳定OD需求的波动对于路网运输能力的发挥有着积极的作用。