Chaotic Phenomena and Quantitative Analysis of Aftereffect Delay Spread Time on Flights

As the number of uncertain factors could result in flight delays into the gate, and in two adjacent flights delayed flights ahead will be spread to different levels of rear flight plans to arrive time. To study the law of spread time of flight delays, in this paper, the flight delayed after-effect spread time calculation method was proposed, and the time series of after-effect delay spread time was calculated using delay time distribution of the flights assigned gate in airport and random delay in flights, then to time series information on reserves can be fully reflected, the paper used embedding theorem for state space reconstruction to be a series of phase points, through these phase points, it can be calculated that the parameters of chaos that is the correlation dimension and the Lyapunov exponent. Finally, the chaos parameters were calculated on the G-P algorithm and a small-data method, then chaotic phenomena of the time series was certificated.

摘要由于一些不确定的因素致使航班进入停机位晚点，而在两相邻航班中前行航班的晚点会不同程度的传播给后行航班计划进入停机位时间，为了研究航班晚点传播时间的规律，本文提出了航班后效晚点传播时间的计算方法，并利用航班进入停机位晚点时间的分布规律，对航班进行随机延误得到航班后效晚点传播时间的时间序列；然后为了能使时间序列蕴藏的信息得以充分体现，采用Takens嵌入定理对相空间进行重构得到一系列相点，从而通过这些相点可以定量计算判别混沌现象的参数即关联维数和Lyapunov指数；最后通过G-P算法与小数据量法分别计算此混沌参数，验证了航班后效晚点传播时间的时间序列具有混沌效应。