Estimating Modal Shift of Car Travelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System

This study is concerned with estimation of the probable shift of car users to bus due to increase in its level of service after providing exclusive bus lanes on Indian city roads carrying heterogeneous traffic. The quantum of increase in level of service of bus due to introduction of exclusive bus lane was determined using a recently developed simulation model of heterogeneous traffic flow. The data of the other factors (variables) that might cause modal shift from car to bus were collected through home-interview survey based on the stated preference approach. A binary Logit model of mode-choice was then calibrated using the collected data and the model was also validated using holdout sample. Through this study, a set of causal factors, with reliable and predictable data base, to explain the variation in shift behaviour of personal vehicle users to buses consequent on the increase in the level of service of buses, has been identified. A mode-choice probability curve to depict the possible modal shift of car users to bus is developed, taking the difference in travel times of the two-modes as the basis, to serve as a user friendly tool to analyze the possible modal shift for a wide range of values of the involved variable.

摘要研究印度城市道路上设置公交专用道后小汽车出行向公交转移的可能性。借助新的混合交通流仿真模型测定设置公交专用道后公交服务水平改善状况。基于陈述偏好入户调查的抽样数据 本文还引入其他影响出行方式转移的变量 标定出行方式选择二元Logit模型。根据实际和预测数据 确定了公交服务水平改善条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的一系列主要影响因素。基于两种方式出行时间差 绘制出行方式转换概率曲线 并为多变量宽值域条件下交通方式转移的预测提供一种易于操作的方法。