Short-term Choice of Travelers with Effect of Traffic Information

The travel information system strengths the relationship between travel and transportation system, which makes the activity-travel decision as a dynamic adjust process. After analyzing the travel demand change with the effect of information, the paper focuses on the short term choice of travelers. Based on the SP survey data of Jilin city, it discusses the interaction among depart time, travel mode, and route choice decision behavior. Considering the influence factors such as the of travelers attitudes, the study quantitatively analyzes the inner relationship of route choice behavior using Bivariate Probit model. The results show that the travel mode choice strongly influence the departure time or route choice, and the route choice is independent relatively. These fundamental works provide some knowledge to further process in the research of the traveler's behavior and provide some valuable advises to transportation programming and management.

摘要出行者信息系统的建立加强了出行和交通系统之间的联系，使得活动-出行决策形成一个动态决策调整过程。在分析信息作用下的活动-出行需求变化的基础上，以信息对出行者的短期决策影响为研究对象，基于吉林市居民出行的SP调查数据，探讨了出行者出发时间、出行方式、路径选择决策行为间的内在联系。考虑出行者对信息持有的态度等影响因素，运用二元Probit模型定量分析了出行者决策行为的内在联系。结果表明，出行方式选择行为与出发时间及路径选择之间密切相关，出行者的路径选择行为则相对独立。研究结论可为城市交通需求预测及交通管理提供参考。