Cost-effectiveness of conjugate pneumococcal vaccination in Singapore: Comparing estimates for 7-valent, 10-valent, and 13-valent vaccines

When compared to cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), our 2008 analysis found that vaccination of infants in Singapore with PCV-7 was very cost-effective if herd immunity effects were present. However, knowledge on herd immunity and serotype replacement that emerged subsequent to this analysis changed our expectations about indirect effects. Given these changed inputs, our current estimates of infant vaccination against pneumococcal disease in Singapore find such programs to be moderately cost-effective compared to WHO thresholds. The different findings from the 2008 and 2011 analyses suggest that the dynamic issue of serotype replacement should be monitored post-licensure and, as changes occur, vaccine effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses should be re-evaluated.