Using scenarios to identify and manage allocation decision risks

This paper employs the solver function in Microsoft Excel™ to make a 'what-if' analysis of library materials budgetary allocation decisions. Two sets of allocation constraints are presented and used to describe two different theoretical scenarios: (1) a slight materials budget increase and (2) a significant materials budget decrease. In each scenario, the associated allocation 'parity' risks are identified using solver and the outcomes of different risk management strategies are considered. Sensitivity to context requires different risk management solutions to minimize conflicts between stakeholders with competing interests. By pre-managing allocation risks, the decisions allow library materials budgets to be optimized.