A Novel Method for Prediction and Warning for Uncontrolled Re-Entry Object Impact

The growing Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) environment in Earth orbit poses an increasing risk not only to active satellites but also to the general public. Of particular concern are the objects in low earth orbit (LEO) which have the potential for catastrophic consequence upon entry and collision with vulnerable terrestrial targets including airborne planes. There are limitations to the ability to predict uncontrolled object re-entry with sufficient precision to give timely or actionable warnings to threatened air traffic zones or surface locations. A system called R-DBAS (Re-entry Direct Broadcasting Alert System) invented by the co-author of this paper, T. Sgobba former head of the European Space Agency Independent Safety Office, has the potential to avoid catastrophic impacts by generating timely surface or air traffic impact warnings. The system includes a self-contained housing with on-board geolocation receiver, processing, memory with debris breakup models, and direct warning broadcast capability.