Models and Simulations: Risks and Lessons Learned

Organizations throughout the world are developing and operating space launch vehicles and systems for the purposes of furthering exploration, delivering services, and facilitating commercial human spaceflight. The operation of the launch vehicles and space systems creates the potential for harm to the crew, to flight participants, and to the uninvolved public. Therefore, it is imperative that comprehensive risk assessments be performed to characterize, evaluate, and reduce the risks of these endeavors. Analytical models and simulations are used in complex space systems to support decision making during development and operations. However, the risks associated with the use of models and simulations are often underestimated, and the hazards are often misunderstood. The failure to understand and address model and simulation risks can lead to poor decisions that may result in mishaps. This paper provides real-world examples and lessons learned to illustrate common concerns with the use of models and simulations.