Does experience rating reduce sickness and disability claims? Evidence from policy kinks

We study whether the experience rating of employers' disability insurance premiums affects the inflow to disability benefits in Finland. To identify the causal effect of experience rating, we exploit kinks in the rule that specifies the degree of experience rating as a function of firm size. Using comprehensive matched employer-employee panel data, we estimate the effects of experience rating on the inflow to sickness and disability benefits. We find that experience rating has little or no effect on either of these outcomes.