MOTORIZATION AND ROLE OF MASS RAPID TRANSIT IN EAST ASIAN MEGACITIES

This paper attempts to explore factors influencing car ownership and car use rates. Through regression analysis, the effects of common urban transport policy measures on car ownership and car use rates are estimated. In addition, dynamics of the urban transport system through feedback loops diagram is examined at the macro-level. Our analysis suggests that common policy measures intended to control motorization are effective through their effects more on car use rate than on car ownership rate. Likewise, Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) can play a significant role in improving overall condition of urban transport. However, the impact of MRT would be insignificant if the investment is committed too late. A simple index for MRT timing has been proposed that could help policy makers from cities without MRT systems to make judgments about the appropriate timing of MRT investment. Regression results, feedback loops diagram and proposed index for MRT timing offer new insights for formulating policy measures for sustainable urban transport in East Asian megacities.