Modelling the Growing Use of Public Transport in Ile-de-France: How ANTONIN 3 Addresses the Challenge

Ile-de-France, the Paris region, is facing major transport policy challenges. To cope with the previous and forecasted growing use of public transport, restructuration and development of existing lines and achievement of new ones including Grand Paris Express metro are planned. Other transport policy measures are promoted to foster the use of modes alternative to car, such as reduction of roads speed limit or parking policy.In this context, traffic and demand forecasts are required. They rely mostly on the demand model developed and used by STIF, the regional public transport authority. ANTONIN (ANalysis of Transport Organisation and New INfrastructures) is multimodal and based on disaggregate discrete choice models.In continuity with already validated methods in the version ANTONIN 2, the third version which will be operational in 2015 brings innovative solutions and up-to-date functionalities aiming to provide reliable and comprehensive forecasts on the wide range of projects planned in the region. This paper presents the major new features, focussing on what issue they intend to enlighten from the transport authority's perspective, how their effects are taken into account in the model and what tests were made to validate and evaluate them.