A Revealed/stated Preference Approach to Bus Service Configuration

This paper proposes a methodology to design an optimal public transport service configuration and forecast demand. It uses a combined revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) approach as well as a Juster scale to ensure strong external validity to both bus choice elasticities and demand forecast. The paper details how elasticities of choice probabilities to bus service characteristics as well as personal and situational factors are adjusted using an RP model based on travellers’ reported last trip to work/study or a nearby shopping centre. The Juster scale anchors the model to ensure it provides realistic forecasts through simulation.