Analytical Modelling of the Spread of a Disease: From Corridors to Transport Networks

Insights into crowd behaviour and mobility patterns can be used to improve disease spreading models. We study how a hypothetical disease spreads in a crowd flow in a corridor. We compare a traditional macroscopic SEIR model with a mesoscopic analytical model showing the relationship between the rate of infection and the crowd density. After that, we apply our analytical description to the complex scenario of the London Underground by studying a system of a central station and all its connections. This allows us to identify the key parameters of how a disease might spread through a public transport network.