Prediction of Urban Growth Using the Bucket Model

A model has been developed to figure out possible population growth pattern in a city. The model suggests that new inhabitants will first saturate the developed urban area, then the overflow fill the partially developed urban area, and lastly move to the adjacent area outside of those two mentioned zones. The last zone is mostly located in an existing agricultural site, which is converted into urban area after the adjacent areas are developed. This model was generated based on spatial and other datasets from the City and County of Honolulu, Hawaii. Those data were analyzed and manipulated mathematically to create the grid map system, a uniform vector grid cell that is filled with demographic, socio-economic, and land use data. This deterministic model is relatively simple yet powerful enough to help planners in decision making process on projecting infrastructures in the future of a city.