Currency Exchange Rate as a Tool of Strategic Analysis (Evidence from Russian Industry)

Due to the transition to the policy of floating exchange rate, currently undertaken by many countries of the world including Russia, the impact of exchange rates on domestic production becomes particularly important. Growth strategy of manufacturing companies, conducting cross-border financial operations, requires mandatory consideration of the impact of the exchange rate on output. The issue of effective accounting of the exchange rate fluctuations in the strategies of Russian companies has become particularly acute over the last years due to economic sanctions. The sanctions apply to the mutual trade and cross-border capital flow. As a result, import substitution has become one of the leading strategic lines of development for Russian companies. Implementation of effective development strategy based on import substitution is possible only if a perspective of exchange rate dynamics is taken into account. This paper is aimed at examining the dynamics of the exchange rate (evidence from Russia) and its relationship with the development strategies of manufacturing companies. The article analyzes theoretical approaches to the assessment of the real exchange rate impact on the manufacturing companies’ output, a mechanism of unification has been developed through analyzing three main channels of influence – demand redistribution, overall level of effective demand and cost of imported material resources. With the help of the authors’ technique, the impact of the real exchange rate on production in Russia in 2002-2012 has been assessed. This analysis was executed separately for enterprises involved in mechanical engineering, metallurgy, consumer goods industry, food processing and chemical industry. The calculations yielded the results which vary considerably for different industries. It is not only the intensity of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the output that differs, but also the duration of the lags between currency shocks and production inconsistencies. The obtained results are recommended for use in the strategic management systems of Russian manufacturing companies, as well as in development and implementation of state economic policy.