Analysis of Impacts on Dispatcher's Route Choice Behaviour by Road Improvements on Using a Trial and Error Learning Model

In previous research, a route choice behavior model was constructed using trial and error type learning dynamics derived from evolutionary game theory. The model can represent the route choice behavior seen in logistics companies, such as the consideration of daily variations in travel time and variations in travel time due to traffic accidents, the choice of multiple routes, and the changing of route choice behavior based on evaluations of past route choice behavior. After having adopted an actual strategy (route choice), the model is such that the strategy is assumed to change according to whether the strategy was successful or not. This paper used this model to analyze the effect of actual planned road projects on the route choice behavior of logistics companies. Analysis was shown to be possible by using the micro-simulation package VISSIM to estimate the change in the average travel time and the standard deviation of the travel time due to road projects, and using the results as the input value for the model. Furthermore, by observing the transition in route selectivity, it was possible to understand how route selectivity varies and the way in which the selectivity finally converges according to the change in the average travel time and in the standard deviation of travel time due to road projects.