Predictive Models for Routing in Urban Distribution

Freight urban distribution faces various and complex uncertainties in relation to travel and idle times in operation. In order to schedule the distribution, time reserves have to be factored in to compensate for the random travel time variations. This paper presents methodologies to estimate the time reserves based on travel and idle time costs, and statistical data. In addition there are solutions presented to stimulate on time deliveries to customers by giving priority to vehicles running on time according to the planned schedule. The comparison between alternatives for a certain origin and destination is performed with the aid of multi-criteria analysis. The problem of finding the optimal route is solved employing a specific methodology. Recommendations are made for on time deliveries.