Interpretation of Probability Phrases in Intergroup Relations Effects of Context and Prior Beliefs

In this study we analyzed how people interpret probability phrases in the area of intergroup relations, testing how prior beliefs and the context in which probability phrases are embedded affect their interpretation. Participants were 180 Italians. Prior beliefs about increase and decrease of immigration were measured; then, participants read eight sentences that included probabilistic pronouncements embedded in two different contexts: increase and decrease of immigration. Results indicated that the interpretation of probability terms is variable both between and within people; moreover, prior beliefs influenced this interpretation.