Project Portfolio Selection in Public Administration Using Fuzzy Logic

The project selection for portfolio management in the governmental sphere is not associated with project financial return, but necessarily involves public benefits. The literature is extensive for portfolio selection when the financial approach is crucial, but little is discussed about selecting projects from the standpoint of public policies. This paper presents a method for project selection in the area of Information Technology (IT) using a tool to support decision- making based on fuzzy logic. A case study validated the method developed, which consists of: 1) Identification of projects; 2) Association of projects with strategic planning; 3) Categorization of projects; 4) Definition of linguistics variables and fuzzy function; 5) Definition of inference rules; 6) Function calculation; and 7) Portfolio balancing. The paper presents interesting experimental results that show the priority of projects and their success potential. The success is related with qualitative and diffuse metrics applied in a simulator for fuzzy logic.