The chance of influence: A natural experiment on the role of social capital in faculty recruitment

•Without a random design to assess it, the impact of social capital could be overestimated.•EHESS's hiring committee is composed of faculty members drawn at random.•Possible to compare the impact of a contact drawn (treatment) versus not drawn (control).•When the applicant's PhD advisor is drawn, it doubles the chances of this applicant of being shortlisted.•Supports the role of strong ties when involved in decision-making.

The effect of social capital is often overestimated because contacts and centrality can be a consequence of success rather than its cause. Only rare randomized or natural experiments can assess the real causal effect of social capital. This paper relies on data from one such experiment: faculty recruitment at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) between 1960 and 2005, a leading French institution of higher education in the social sciences. It exploits the fact that the electoral commission, a hiring committee which produces a first ranking of applicants, is partly composed of faculty members drawn at random. It shows that when the PhD advisor is randomly drawn, it doubles the chances of an applicant of being shortlisted.