A hidden Markov model for informative dropout in longitudinal response data with crisis states

We adopt a hidden state approach for the analysis of longitudinal data subject to dropout. Motivated by two applied studies, we assume that subjects can move between three states: stable, crisis, dropout. Dropout is observed but the other two states are not. During a possibly transient crisis state both the longitudinal response distribution and the probability of dropout can differ from those for the stable state. We adopt a linear mixed effects model with subject-specific trajectories during stable periods and additional random jumps during crises. We place the model in the context of Rubin’s taxonomy and develop the associated likelihood. The methods are illustrated using the two motivating examples.